An IR built in Yokohama, near Tokyo, could expect to have a local market population of about 38.6 million adults, with the potential to general about $5.6 billion in gross gambling revenue, Global Market Advisors said in a white paper.
The firm analysed four potential scenarios for the introduction of IRs into Japan and delved into the extent of potential domestic support in each of the locations. These figures don’t take into account revenue from Japanese visitors from elsewhere in the country, or potential tourists.
GMA said under a scenario under which Japan allows two IRs, one in Osaka and one in Yokohama, the latter would “have the largest primary market segment of any study that GMA has ever completed since its inception in 2005.”
This IR’s primary market segments are expected to include Kanagawa and Tokyo, secondary market segments are expected to include Saitama and Chiba, and tertiary market segments are expected to include Yamanashi, Shizuoka, Ibaraki, Tochigi, and Gunma. The two primary market segments are expected to have a combined total and adult population of 22.2 million and 18.8 million, respectively, in 2025.
The analysis highlights the appeal of the Japanese market to potential investors, given the large population base with a high level of income and strong propensity to gamble. It is assumed locals will be allowed to gamble, potentially with an entry fee similar to that in Singapore.
The potential of an IR in Yokohama may be diminished under another potential scenario of a fully developed market that includes another IR in Tokyo. However, even then, GMA would expect it to capture about $3.5 billion from local visitors.
The first scenario was two IRs – one in Osaka and one in Yokohama; the second consisted of two IRs in those locations, and two smaller ones in Hokkaido and Sasebo.
This scenario would have little impact on the local market revenue of the two larger properties in Osaka and Yokohama given the relative distance apart.
A third scenario envisages only one location — Osaka — but multiple IRs forming an Osaka Strip, whilst the fourth is a more fully developed scenario with multiple IRs across the country, in two stages. Under this scenario, GMA projects total potential GGR, including tourism, of more than $24.2 billion.