Smoking restrictions unlikely until late 2016 or early 2017

Sterne Agee says based on checks with two active and one former Macau Assembly members, additional smoking restrictions are unlikely to be implemented until late 2016, though more likely, early 2017. 

SA’s comments stand in contrast to most market estimates of further smoking restrictions by early 2016.

“We believe a lengthened implementation versus investor consensus could boost CY16 Macau market estimates and sentiment.”

Public consultation regarding a full smoking ban or the allowance of smoking rooms within VIP areas should conclude by the end of the month, said SA analyst David Bain.

Committee Assembly members will then study these results, take additional meetings and also review additional evidence that smoking rooms prevent second hand smoking risks. 

“In discussions, checks cite the Commission’s review could take a number of months and the Commission’s President is unlikely to call for a vote in the General Meeting of the Legislative Assembly until that review has been completed in full. The Commission would then ask for any potential Bill amendments to be considered and signed by Macau’s Chief Executive.”

“Based on the aforementioned timeline/process, it is doubtful implementation of further restrictions could take effect in early CY16, which consensus estimates and many investors anticipate.”