Oct. GGR up 8.8 percent, beats expectations

Macau GGR grew 8.8 percent in October, beating analyst expectations. Gross Gaming Revenues for the month came in at MOP 21.8 billion, higher than market expectations of around +6 percent. 

Average daily revenue (ADR) for the month was MOP 704 million (+14.8 percent higher than Sep’s ADR of MOP 613 million). The nearly 9 percent year on year growth represents the third consecutive month of growth and the best growth rate since May 2014.

October benefited from one extra Sunday, though had one fewer Friday. VIP volumes and hold rate were stronger than expected, resulting in a VIP GGR growth of 2 – 5 percent, according to Bernstein analysts, who estimate that mass GGR was up in the mid-teens percentage range. 

Union Gaming said in a note that the increase further indicates an inflection point for Macau, particularly considering several headwinds in the month, including a typhoon, and visit by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Anecdotal evidence is that VIP volume during the week of the Premier’s visit could have halved.

November GGR is expected to mimic that of mid/late September, taking into account some seasonal weakness, with Union Gaming estimating an 11 percent increase, and Bernstein between 5 and 7 percent growth.