Macau Sept. GGR drops 33 percent, in line with forecasts

Macau’s gambling revenue declined 33 percent in September, in line with analysts’ forecasts, as a bright start to the month was offset by slower traffic leading up to the key Golden Week holiday.

Also contributing to the decline in September was the low VIP win rate and junket liquidity issues after another scandal involving money going missing at Dore.

According to figures from the territory’s gambling regulator, GGR in the month was MOP17.1 billion ($2.14 billion), down from MOP25.5 billion in the year ago period. Year-to-date, GGR is down 36.2 percent.

It was the smallest monthly decline since January and continued the trend of slightly improving monthly results.

“While the September result is the smallest level of decline since January, one would be hard pressed to call it encouraging,” Deutsche Bank wrote in a note, saying it expects a decline of about 27 percent for October.

Wells Fargo also said it expects a decline of about 27 percent to 33 percent in October, though added its latest checks show junket operators to be marginally more optimistic heading into the month.

However, given trends in the market Deutsche Bank says it still believes that projections for 2016 are higher than they should be.

“Assuming limited aggregate incremental demand from the Studio City opening in late October and barring an unforeseen turnaround in the market, we believe the 1Q16 is poised to start the year with, at minimum, a high teens y/y decline and hence we continue to find expectations for growth in 2016 to be unrealistic,” it said.

The German bank’s estimate for September market share were: SJM 22.4 percent, LVS 20.0 percent, WYNN 10.2 percent, MPEL 14.5 percent, Galaxy 21.7 percent, and MGM 11.2 percent.