Macau October gross gaming revenue ‘solid’ so far

Macau table-only gross gaming revenue seems to have struck a positive chord among analysts, who estimate gross gaming revenues were about MOP8.5 billion ($1.1 billion) from October 1 to October 11.

The 11-day daily GGR table average of MOP775.8 million compares to last year’s MOP823.5 million over the first 12 days of October, down just 6 percent year-on-year, according to Sterne Agee.

“We believe results are solid, especially considering the negative impact from a typhoon during the holiday.”

Sterne Agee’s October GGR forecast remains between 28 percent and 31 percent YoY – “which would mark the best “less bad” GGR result since January CY15 (a general monthly trend we expect to continue into next year).”

Sterne Agee said although it anticipates weakening GGR through the month, it believes the opening of Macau Studio City will spur growth.

“As is the case after any major holiday causing visitation/GGR spikes – we believe little consideration is given to potential market growth from the Macau Studio City opening October 27.”

Cameron McKnight estimates October Macau gaming revenues to decline 24 percent to 28 percent YoY, compared to its prior estimate of 30 percent to 34 percent. 

McKnight puts Average Daily Revenues for the first eleven days of October at MOP827 million versus September ADR of MOP 571 million. 

“We note that early October revenues benefited from China’s Golden Week holiday. We remain on the sidelines on the Macau gaming names as estimates and valuations adjust to a ”new normal”…”

Meanwhile, according to the preliminary statistics from Public Security Police Force, the overall visitor arrivals in Macau during October Golden Week hit 1.06 million, a year-on-year rise of 2.72 percent. A total of 906,652 visitors came from the Mainland and the figure went up by 7.11 percent compared with that of 2014.

According to figures provided by local trade, the average occupancy rate of 3 to 5 Star hotels was 86.86 percent during the Golden Week, a year-on-year decline of 0.3 percent. Up to date, the total number of rooms provided by all hotels and guest houses in Macau has climbed up to 30,526.