Macau July GGR tracking for around 35 percent drop

Macau table-only gross gaming revenue in July is estimated to fall around 35 percent year-on-year according to current revenue checks.

According Sterne Agee, gross gaming revenue was MOP14.86 billion ($1.87 billion) from July 1 to July 26, which indicates a year-on-year decline of 35 percent, or MOP18.4 billion. 

Sterne Agee’s July GGR YoY growth forecast range has moved to negative 33 percent to negative 36 percent from between negative 30 percent and negative 34 percent . 

“If July ends at -35 percent, it would mark the fifth-consecutive month of “less bad” YoY growth results – a trend we expect to continue through the remainder of the year,” Sterne Agee analyst David Bain wrote in a note.

In response to the Macau government’s comments that it would consider introducing austerity measures to control spending as early as next month, Bain said public acknowledgment of potential austerity measures may be beneficial for future policy decisions that would impact GGR.

“In essence, discussions could act as a “wake-up call” for policy makers of key gaming topics, including stronger smoking restrictions and table allocations for new property openings.”

Wells Fargo analyst Cameron McKnight estimates July Macau gaming revenue will decline 34 percent to 35 percent as checks suggest average daily revenues were MOP614 million versus MOP585 million the week before.

“We estimate July to track at around -35% yr/yr. This assumes July same store ADR will trend in line with historical seasonality and takes into account the ramp of Galaxy Phase II. We are assuming roughly 600MM to 625MM MOP for the remaining week in July, which takes into account recent seasonality of some relative strength in back half of the month.”

Bernstein Research puts Macau’s GGR for the month through July 26 at MOP15.5 billion.

“On ADR basis, we believe July may continue to show some stabilization and improvement month-over-month.”