Macau July GGR beats estimates

Macau gross gaming revenue raked in MOP 17.8 billion (US$2.2 billion) in July, a 4.5 percent decline year-on-year, according to the latest figures released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.

The result, while slightly better than the consensus estimate of a decline of 5.5 percent in July, represented the city’s 26th month of casino revenue slump.

As per Bernstein’s forecast earlier in the month, volume picked towards the end of the month as the Euro cup ended and summer holiday visitation increased.

“July’s year-on-year decline rate represents an improvement to the 16H1 year-on-year decline of 11 percent. We maintain our view that 16H2 should experience a pickup in year-on-year growth driven by a slowing decline in VIP GGR and new project openings,” said the brokerage.

Bernstein said that GGR is expected to increase by 2 percent year-on-year in August to MOP 19 billion.

“The Wynn Palace opening should provide a bump in GGR, coupled with a pickup in seasonal visitation. We estimate VIP to decline mid-single digits percentage and Mass to increase high single digits percentage,” said the brokerage.

Union Gaming on the other hand issued a word of warning on August, due to an incoming typhoon and gamblers deferring their trips to await the opening of Wynn Palace.

“We expect the first few days of August to experience lower-than-recent-normal daily GGR as Typhoon Nida is bearing down on the Pearl River Delta… Assuming that the path and intensity of the storm don’t change, we expect lighter visitation during the first few days of August as regional visitors defer trips.”

“Along the same line of thinking, we further assume that the first three weeks of August will be negatively impacted by some number of higher value customers deferring their trips to Macau as they wait for the openings of Wynn Palace on 22 August and Parisian Macau on 13 September. We would, however, expect the last week of August to be strong as it benefits from the opening of Wynn Palace and a likely boost in associated high end visitation.”