Macau GGR for the month through July 5 was MOP 3.15 billion ($394 million), while the average daily rate was MOP630 million, higher than May’s rate of MOP579 million, according to Bernstein Research.
Assuming ADR of MOP600 to 630 million for the remainder of this month, Bernstein estimates July GGR to be MOP18.8 to 19.5 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 31 percent to 34 percent.
“The result may indicate some green shoots of industry stabilization,” Bernstein analysts wrote.
Wynn Macau and Sands China gained the most market share at the expense of SJM Holdings, the note says.
“With the near-term headwinds, we believe casino operators with operational and marketing acumen are in more favorable positions to grab share. In the upcoming cycle, we expect the differentiated supply coming online in Cotai will drive incremental demand for the entire market.”
The note adds that as government policy starts to turn more accommodative, with changes to the transit visa rule, both premium mass and VIP segments could see an increase.
“ We believe the government is thinking more constructively on its agenda to balance economic diversification and full employment.”
“We expect to see a bottoming by the latter part of the year with rejuvenated growth beginning in 2016.”