Macau GGR estimated to decline 18-24 percent in March; Bernstein

Macau’s gross gaming revenue for March 1-6 was MOP 3.2 billion (US$400 million), implying an ADR of MOP 533 million, down 21 percent from February’s ADR, according to a report from Bernstein.

“We believe that both VIP and Mass have weakened following Chinese New Year holiday,” said analysts.

Assuming an ADR of 550-600 million for the month, March GGR is estimated at MOP 16.4 – 17.6 billion, a decline of 18-24 percent year on year.

Bernstein says the results of the first week were disappointing as they were projecting only a 10 percent year on year decline in March.

According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), February saw GGR only drop 0.1 percent year on year, to MOP 19.5 billion, beating analyst expectations.

According to Deutsche Bank, Macau casino operator Sands China was the biggest contributor of February’s gross gaming revenue, taking 24.6 percent of market share, followed by Galaxy with 22.4 percent.

“Simply, if the market is recovering then sequential / seasonal trends should be improving,” said Deutsche Bank analysts Carlo Santarelli and Danny Valoy in a note last week. “This is difficult to see in looking at February alone and the January / February combined two-year stack shows just modest improvement from the prior period two-year stacks. Thus, we think March is important and we view down 7 per cent year-on-year as a key level.”

Deutsche Bank forecasts March gross gaming revenues would see a 10.1 per cent year-on-year decline.