Macau GGR down 9.5 percent, above consensus

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) declined 9.5 percent year on year in April to MOP 17.3 billion (US$2.2 billion), according to official data.

April’s casino GGR, which marked the 23rd month of decline for the gaming hub was down from 19.2 billion in the same month in 2015.

Accumulated GGR was MOP 73.5 billion, down 12.4 percent from the same period in 2015.

The results were slightly up from analyst estimates, which had predicted a decline of 13.5 percent for the month of April, said Union Gaming analysts.

“Importantly – and despite numerous reports to the contrary that suggested April was underperforming and slowing relative to March – April GGR performed exactly in line with March on a GGR/day basis (MOP580mm) and was right on top of the forecast we set last month,” said Union Gaming.

“Further, April 2016 actually notably outperformed what we’ve seen on a sequential basis the last three years… Put together, the stability story is clearly intact and we are expecting nice sequential growth in May and are already seeing signs of this,” added the brokerage.

Union Gaming says they expect more than MOP 18.5 billion in May, representing a 9 percent decline year on year, and remains optimistic June could see a return to year on year growth, fueled by mass/ slots momentum.

April is a generally weak month, said Bernstein analysts. “We estimate that mass was relatively flat year on year and VIP was down approximately 20 percent year on year.”

For the month, ADR was MOP 578 million, flat to March ADR of MOP 580 million.