Macau at the start of mass-led GGR recovery: DB

Deutsche Bank‘s Karen Tang says Macau is on the cusp of a mass market recovery.

The analyst, who conducted extensive interviews with “a dozen of casino service staff & premium mass hosts” says gaming spend per visitor has started to rise, and VIPs are returning as premium mass players, adding that Macau appears to be at the start of a mass-led GGR recovery.

“Each mass market player is spending more,” says Tang. “In the second quarter, Macau’s mass gross gaming revenue rose 4 percent, even though the total number of visitors fell 0.5 percent.”

“We forecast that Mass GGR growth will accelerate from 4 percent year-on-year in 16Q2 to 10 percent year-on-year in 16H2 and to 12 percent year-on-year in 2017,” she explained.

“Our proprietary table count confirms the return of premium mass. Proportion of baccarat tables with over HK$2,000 min bet rose from 29 percent of the mass floor in Dec to 36 percent by July, with min bet rising prominently since July,” she added.

Macau posted its first year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenue in August, after a 26-month slump.

The gaming hub raked in MOP 18.8 billion ($2.4 billion) in gross gaming revenue in the month, an increase of 1.1 percent year-on-year.

“…August trends were good, especially at the mass market level,” said brokerage Union Gaming at the time.