Macau Q4 more challenged than expected: Nomura

Softer VIP volumes in November and tighter security measures during the Chinese President’s visit to Macau in December will weigh on Macau GGR in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to analysts from Nomura Research. 

“According to several property managers, we spoke with recently… overall VIP volumes in November have slowed more than the usual post-October Golden Week… The Macau government has put restrictions on multiple re-entry visas.”

“While frequent customers accustomed to getting through immigration have been turned away recently. Deactivation of electronic issuance of visas has also had a negative impact on more frequent visitors,” they said. 

December will pose a larger challenge for operators, with tighter security measures in the 7-10 days up to and during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Macau to celebrate the SAR’s 20th anniversary of its return to Mainland China. 

The brokerage also noted that with Chinese New Year occurring in January next year, customers are likely to defer their December visits to January. 

Nomura analysts have revised their Macau GGR estimates to -8 percent year-on-year in 19Q4, with VIP falling 26 percent, and mass growing 14 percent, compared to -5 percent, -22 percent and 12 percent consensus.