Global VIP growth to outpace Macau’s in 2016: Morgan Stanley

While global VIP business will still see negative growth in 2016, growth outside Macau should outpace that of the Asia gambling hub, says Morgan Stanley in a report on Wednesday.

According to the brokerage, 16Q1 marked the first time that global VIP revenue stopped declining sequentially since the downturn. This has been assisted by junket consolidation, RMB stability, and Chinese property market recovery.

However, Macau VIP in 2016 will still face headwinds – with phone betting being banned, and additional scrutiny on junkets, said the brokerage.

“Macau’ s contribution to global VIP business dropped from 80 percent in 2012 to 65 percent in 2015. We expect global VIP revenue to decline 8 percent in 2016 and then grow by 3 percent in 2017, but revenue outside Macau should grow faster, at 6/8 percent in 2016/17.”

The brokerage said it will raise its VIP revenue forecast for Philippines, given the phone ban in Macau, and will also reduce revenue forecasts for Vegas.