Bernstein revises 2018 GGR estimates on strong mass and VIP

Macau gross gambling revenue in 18Q1 is estimated to grow 18 percent year-on-year, driven by stronger year-on-year growth in VIP vs mass, say analysts from Bernstein. 

However, there will be some slight deceleration in GGR in the 18Q2 due to slowing VIP demand and a more difficult comparison, but mass should continue to show robust growth, said the brokerage. 

The estimates come in after an observed strong fourth quarter in 2017 – with mass driven by expanding premium mass and continuing growth in overnight visitors. VIP also benefited from strong fundamental demand and good junket liquidity in the quarter.

Looking at the full year 2018, Bernstein has slightly raised its estimated GGR growth to 11 percent, comprised of mass year-on-year growth of 12 percent (from 11 percent) and VIP growth of 9.5 percent. (from 8 percent). Industry EBITDA growth has been revised to 13 percent (up from 10 percent).

Bernstein said its top picks in the sector include Melco Resorts and Wynn Macau.